Desirable Futures are Sustainable Futures
Join me under RED's hood to understand the Strategic Foresight time-machine!
On our last trip Back from the Futures, we saw the potential of foresight to anticipate risks and inform strategic decision-making. At the same time, we've seen how it is rendered useless without action.
If you are frozen by Uncertainty or by the infinite possibilities ahead, Foresight can help you. But if you choose not to act, be certain that the future will arrive anyway. One of the few certainties we have in life is: Time never stops.
So, how to overcome the fear of uncertainty and break the inertia?
Want to know the answer? You came to the right place.
This is what I like to do, to bridge Futures and Strategy 4 positive impact!If you are experienced in futures or foresight, check the strategy golden nuggets 😉↓
Let's pop RED's hood! 🚗
To understand the nuts and bolts of our time machine ↓
Why Futures, plural?
The spacetime highway.
The most intuitive visualization of why there is not a singular future. There are infinite possible Futures to explore.
The Futures Cone starts at our current point in time and expands our field of view. The further in time the broader the field, as more uncertainty opens the Futures for more possibilities.
At the end of the Cone, we see the most Probable Futures in the center. These are the ones more in line with current trends and developments. The further away from the center of the Cone, the less probable they become, from Plausible, then Possible, up to Preposterous Futures. Within this framework, we can envision different Future Scenarios and identify the most Preferable one[s].
That becomes our strategic destination.
Strategic Foresight
The quantum engine of our time machine.
“Strategic foresight is not about predicting the future; it explores different possible futures, alongside the opportunities and challenges they might present. Ultimately, it helps policy-makers to act in the present to shape the future.”
The engine of our time-machine is Strategic Foresight. It is a huge and complex subject so I won't explore it in depth here. But you can explore it in the Starters Pack you received after subscribing. [If you didn't get it → Subscribe below]
In Futures Studies and Foresight, I see a lot of effort put into Scanning Signals and Trends, Reports, Speculation — Scenarios, Artifacts, and Fiction— while all of those help foster reflection and might inspire action. I feel this gap, between Futures visions and the actual journey, the commitment, to go there.
Maybe it is the Designer in me that wants to turn ideas into reality. To materialize. To make a tangible impact. To see the results of the collective effort. That is why in my practice, I focus on Bridging this Gap, connecting FORESIGHT + STRATEGY.
After speculating and creating Scenarios, we can start to bridge that gap. Multiple Scenarios can help to inform and evaluate multiple strategies. By crossing these elements we can explore risks and opportunities, that will lead to more resilient strategies.
Below you can see 3 methods on how to do it. ↓
In the end, an engine doesn't work on its own. It is useless unless it has fuel.
To cross the space-time continuum, from the present to a Preferable Future we need a lot of energy!
People
The fuel
The only fuel that can provide enough energy for time traveling is people, just like The Matrix, the same is true for our Strategic Foresight engine.
The only way to motivate people to give in their energy is to inspire them. For that, we need an inspiring and positive vision for the future we want to visit.
Preferable Futures are key here, also seen as Desirable Futures. These are the final destinations, we need to establish for the energy to flow.
“Innovation starts with a story about the future. Imagining and sharing desires and fears about the futures is a way for all of us to shape it.”
— Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow: A modest defence of futurology, by Nesta
Unfortunately, Strategic Foresight's potential can be used to produce a negative impact, when decision-makers use it for short-term gains or selfish profits.
Remember the last issue's case from the South of Brazil's floods? The Government's inaction, not maintaining the anti-flood systems plus the attack on almost 500 environmental laws led to this year's ongoing crisis. As they have increasingly rendered their systems more fragile and less resilient.
That is not exclusive to Brazil or Governments though. A similar negative impact on our ecosystem can be seen worldwide, at a much greater scale, pushed by big fossil fuel producers, with Shell in particular. ↓
Shell has their own, well-known Scenario building practice [as Alex Fergnani references in the video above]. For more than 30 years they have known about the impacts of CO2 emissions and the Greenhouse Effect. They not only funded this research but kept their results confidential. To later, invest in misinformation and distrust of Climate Change. Meanwhile, they reported a record annual profit of $40bn for 2022, have abandoned plans to cut oil production for the rest of the decade and plan to invest all those $40bn from 22 in oil and gas production up till 2035.
" ... one area of spending Shell rarely held back was in funding climate denial.
Hüzeir’s dossier reveals how as the company’s awareness of the devastating consequences of climate change grew, beginning in the 1970s and going on indefinitely, Shell has consistently funded and backed a series of publications and institutions that downplayed or omitted key climate risks; emphasized scientific uncertainties; or made unrealistic suggestions about future technological solutions (like carbon capture).
Moreover, Shell’s public-facing documents neither addressed nor cited the findings or warnings of their own internal climate investigations.”
Looking at things clearly without the daily noise we're subject to, makes it easy to see the amount of instability being pushed onto the world's population, especially in the most vulnerable places.
Leaders are blindfolded by an infinite growth ideology, that puts private profits above all else, including human lives eroding our social fabric, the natural environment, and ultimately the global ecosystem.
BUT! Do not despair. Remember my goal is Positive Impact!
So, how do we get there?
Desirable Futures are Sustainable Futures
The Compass
“A Fool with a Tool is still a Fool.”
— Grady Booch
As leaders, consultants, Futurists, Strategists, and Foresighters, we have a crucial role to play, we need to avoid falling trapped by Business as usual. To replicate and push established future narratives that benefit a few to the detriment of all.
In Foresight and Futures activities, I usually see our society's critical issues mapped — Climate Change, the need for inclusion, diversity, and inequality — but not internalized. They are mentioned, but not acted upon, they get overlooked. For example:
— To say inclusion and diversity are key, for a better foresight practice is not to include a diverse set of people, into the foresight practice.
— To state that Climate change is a megatrend is different than bringing, activists and scientists into the research and the Scenario building.
— Climate injustice is a global issue. How can we act upon it?
I don't pretend to have all the answers, but I believe the first step to getting those is to ask the right questions.
The evidence is there, to be seen, read, and felt. Not all trends are cool, or positive, and only by acknowledging that we can have the [so much needed] deep conversations to address these critical issues. As Nicklas Larsen said, identifying areas of friction helps us see ways out of the present gridlock.
We need positive friction and imagination!
In subjects as complex as Climate Change or Inequality. It is easy to be overwhelmed and filter out to focus on matters we have more control over. We cannot give ourselves that excuse though. To create Scenarios, travel in time, and build worlds is a craft that sets it all in our control.
It is up to us to imagine Desirable Futures. Futures that foster the power of inclusion, and diversity, where Climate Justice is a reality. Only by imagining and communicating these visions, we can inspire and feel inspired to bend the curve away from the "Survival of the Richest".
In doubt, listen to John lennon!
That is the compass if we want a habitable planet, a just society, and less extreme weather havoc. That is my compass at least.
All Desirable Futures are Sustainable Futures.
If you want to dive deeper into Climate or Sustainability, and don't know where to start. I highly recommend Project Drawdown's Climate Solutions 101, a free short videos course, then you can dig deeper into their Climate Solutions library, filtering by industry sector.
Last but not least ↓
Given the success of the Strategic Foresight Starters Pack I'd like to know if you would be interested in the Sustainability 4 the Real World Starters Pack. It is something I have been working on for a while. But you know, priorities.
So, if you would like me to prioritize it and send it your way:
— Hit the button below and let me know!
I'm Victor Mascarenhas, the time traveler in charge of the Red Delorean. I have 15+ years of experience leading strategic projects in more than 10 countries. When not writing here, I help organizations and individuals through Strategic Foresight and Sustainable Innovation.
See you in the Future!
